climatic change: climate and greenhouse effect

F. the French case: The climatic warming up in Europe and in France

For Europe, most climatic models foresee a warming up more marked in summer and to the South, an increase of the precipitations stronger (more abundant in a shorter time lapse) in winter to the North and a reduction of the more important rains in summer to the South. Since one century, Europe warmed itself of 0,8°C.

For France, two organisms develop numeric models of forecastings of the climate, it is about Weather report-France with Arpeggio and the laboratory of dynamic meteorology of the CNRS with LMDZ. The confrontation of their results reveals the similar tendencies that refine the forecastings.

a very rich report achieved by scientists who make authority us well stocked the main elements of the consequences of the climatic warming up.
Besides:
"according to Weather report-France, since the end of the XIX century, the warming up was on average the order of 1°C, either +0,6°C in the North and +1,1°C in the South.
"the temperatures should climb of about 2°C of here to 2050
"the volumes of precipitations should be more important in winter (of +2% according to LMDZ to +13% according to Arpeggio) and weaker in winter (-21% according to Arpeggio and -18% according to LMDZ)
"the length of enneigement will decrease distinctly to 1 500 m of altitude, even though the wintry precipitations should increase of here at the end of the XX century of about 10%.
"in Paris, the temperature of air rose of 2°C since 100 years as well as the one of the basement as testify the 13,3 °C of the cellars of the observatory of Paris of it currently against 11,8 °C until in 1880
according to a simulation of weather report-France, the frequency of episodes of strong heats (number of days with temperatures passing 35°C) would be multiplied by 5. The heatwave of 2003 famous well that a small variation of the middle temperature can hide violent phenomena. Indeed, according to Weather report-France, this episode "passed of very far everything that has been known besides since 1873 by his/her/its intensity and his/her/its length" with 4°C on the extreme temperatures whereas the middle temperature of 2003 in France hardly passed the one of 1998, the hottest year recorded on the globe.
Since 25 years, France was with Italy the European country the more touched by the natural disasters. Moreover, on the period of survey 1978-2001, the last 4 years knew more of the third of the natural disasters that are represented to 75% by the floodings
> The French national program and the first results
The protocol of kyoto commits France to keep, to the worse, his/her/its emissions of gas to greenhouse effect to the levels of 1990 (objective of 0%). However, the economic growth of France, even though it stays relatively weak, necessarily increase the broadcasts of GES of year in year... to respect his/her/its engagement and not to penalize the developing countries, France must divide therefore by 4 his/her/its broadcasts for the horizon 2050! A bet well badly committed in spite of the national program of struggle against the climatic change hired in January 2000 by the state and that validates the works of the GIEC.

In order to reach the objectives of reduction of emissions of gas to greenhouse effect, every country must take some measures to the national level, one speaks then of National Program of Struggle against the Climatic Changes or PNLCC for France.
This program includes the realization of a yearly inventory of the broadcasts of atmospheric pollutants. In France, the Ministry of the ecology and the Lasting Development (MEDD) confides this work in the technical Interprofessional Center of study of the atmospheric pollution (CITEPA).
In 2004, France gave out 562,6 millions of tons are equivalent CO2 is 0,8% of less that in 1990 (CITEPA,03/2006).
> The Plane Climate
Since July 2004, France endowed itself with a Plane climate. Applicable until 2010, he/it will be reinforced in July 2006.
According to the interdepartmental Mission on the greenhouse effect (CRUMBS), "the plane Climate 2004 regroups some actions in all sectors of the economy and the daily life of the French in order to consolidate the broadcasts in 2010 to their level of 1990 (564 MteCO2s), that means a minimal economy of 54 MteCO2s per year until 2010. "
For as much, in the setting of a division by 4 or 5 the broadcasts of 2050, the plane Climate should allow France to pass his/her/its objectives for 2010, while displaying a total reduction of 73 MteCO2s.
The Plane Climate should be re-actualized every two years, therefore in 2006 in order to reinforce the most efficient measures.
> The different sectors of broadcasts in France
The sector of the transportation represents more than 30% of the total of the broadcasts of CO2 on average in the world and this report grows continually since several years in almost all the countries. The only road circulation is responsible in 2004 17% of the world broadcasts of CO2.

In France, the transportation are the second persons responsible of the broadcasts of CO2 after the industry (all disconcerted sectors). With the habitat, it is more of 45% of the broadcasts of CO2 and the two only sectors that present a very troubling evolution since the broadcasts are in strong increase since 1990. The habitat is often shown of the finger because of the materials used for the constructions and the systems of heating; the transportation for the multiplication of the cars, the growth troubling of the aerial transportation and the obstruction for the 4x4.

For the road transportation, France committed to introduce 5,75% of biofuel in fuels of here to 2008 and 10% of 2015. The objective for 2008 would correspond to a gain of 7 Mteq CO2S (IFEN,01/2006).
> Conclusion
We can keep that:
"By default, the fluctuations natural of temperature adjoin 1°C more or less per millennium, however the announced temperatures count on changes 15 to 60 times faster!
"the resolutions to take to avoid major climatic changes are more and more impossible to hold for the industrialized countries. Indeed, the intergovernmental panel estimates that it would be necessary to reduce the broadcasts of 60% of to 2050 here to maintain the global warming to an acceptable level, what appears utopian seen the inertia of our societies. A scientific survey of the international agency of the energy, made public whereas the conference of The Hague ended, reveal that the broadcasts of CO2 are going to increase at least of 60% in the atmosphere from 2020, even though the engagements of the conference of Kyoto are applied effectively...
"to limit the future climatic change while allowing the Third World to develop itself/themselves, it would be necessary to divide per capita by two the consumption of the rich countries and to limit to a doubling the one of the poor countries.
" "The whole world must adapt to the evolution of the climate. We don't have the choice. The system is in prey to an enormous inertia and, whatever we make today, it is necessary for us to adapt us to the climatic change, that is a phenomenon writes down in the length." (Rajendra Pachaury, president of the GIEC, 11/2005)
To the final, the industrialized countries that the newness of this major phenomenon has, follow-ups closely by the powers of the developing countries work hard to use some means worthy of the ineluctable and already visible consequences. Yet, the responsibility of all citizens is hired and it is also each among us to give proof of more of maturity and responsibility. Even